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September 25, 2005

ディープインパクト登場

明日は神戸新聞杯で2冠馬ディープインパクト登場です。前売りオッズだと単勝1.0倍でした。ちなみに1.0倍というのは100円かけて100円、1億かけても1億しかもらえません。つまり利益なしです。
これって一体何を意味しているのでしょう。それだけ絶対的な人気を集めていることは間違いないのですが、合理的な投資家ならこれは馬鹿げた賭けであることが容易に分かるはずです。

ディープインパクトの単勝にどれだけのお金がつぎ込まれているのかはわからないのであくまで憶測ですが、合理的な投資家は単勝狙いよりもディープインパクトから馬単や3連単を狙いに行くはずなので、ノイズトレーダーが多数存在するのかもしれません。記念に単勝馬券100円を買う人も多いのかも知れません。

このオッズを見ると明日の最終オッズは多分1.1倍にまで下がると思っています。ナリタブライアンの世代のライバル馬もそうでしたが、特に今年の三歳は他のメンツ達の実力に疑問もあるのでひょっとしたら1.0倍のままになるのかもしれませんね。

実際にお金を投資するかどうかは明日のスポーツ新聞を見て決めようと思いますが、ボクはディープインパクトはバッサリ斬ります。多分、ディープインパクトをはずすだけでほとんどの馬券が万馬券になるはずです。当たるか当たらないかは別としてどう考えてもこのオッズは効率的市場が反映されたものでないと思ってます。なので、ディープインパクトを斬ることによる配当の方がはるかにおいしいと思っています。
さて、どうなることやら。

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Comments

こんにちは。

私も一時期競馬はまっていましたが、
その時にやっていた高い確率で稼ぐ方法に少し似ていますね。

私は1~メインまでのレースをとりあえず10点に絞ってそれぞれに100円(当時は中学生なので金がなかったのです・・・。)かけていました。

その100円をかける対象が30倍以上の倍率の馬連。
(重勝系は荒れづらいと判断して、無難な所にかけていました。ちなみに当時は馬連・枠連と単勝・複勝しかなかったです。)
これをやると、良ければ3~4レース当たり、収益率は2~3倍といった感じでした。
とくに前半のレースは荒れやすいですからね。

今は全く競馬をやっていないのでよくわかりませんが、
ディープインパクトは本当に強いそうですね。

ディープインパクトを外すのは大きな賭けといえますね。
さて、どうなるでしょうか。

Posted by: chino | September 25, 2005 at 01:05 PM

chinoさん、こんばんは。

一応、ディープインパクトを外して5頭、馬連のボックスで
買ってみたのですが惨敗でした。

WINSで観戦していた感想として、あの強さ(周りの馬達の弱さもあります)だったら今回のオッズだと(単勝1.1に落ち着いていました)むしろ割安だったのかもしれないなとさえ思えました。それくらい完璧な勝利でした。七分の力で余裕勝ちといったところでしょうか。

競馬は難しいっす。

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